I know, I know, you think this is some sort of political rant from a righty wingnut. No, this is a basic outline of how the administration’s policies have completely obliterated any chance of a meaningful recovery and why we are likely to see sluggish economic activity and double digit unemployment for years to come. This is a purely economic/financial discussion, so if you voted for “hope and change” and you actually think you got what you voted for, stop kidding yourself, you’re not being objective – especially if you’re part of the young crowd. Your future was sold out from under your feet. If you’re at least objective about how the current policies are impacting the nation’s business outlook, you’ll surely agree with some of the blunders here and how we should learn from these mistakes lest we repeat them again. Today’s dismal housing numbers and the stock market follow through further underscore the complete lack of confidence in the administration and confirm our fears – there is no economic recovery…we may be headed for Depression.
Healthcare Reform
We get it, there are millions of Americans that don’t enjoy the same health care benefits that the rest of the country does, and arguably, much of the developed world. This issue needed to be addressed. It should have been addressed in a well thought-out way in the context of the world we live in though. While the administration could have opted for a prolonged bi-partisan panel approach to addressing the problem, there was this constant urgency to enact something…anything before each recess and what we ended up with was a complete sham – as Pelosi reinforced, we needed to vote for the Bill so that we could read it and understand it. Smart.
The program claims to be revenue neutral over the first decade but it pays for itself for 4 years up front before the heavy costs even start to be incurred. Additionally, revenues to fund the program are basically derived from completely unrelated sources and cuts to other entitlements that have nothing to do with any “benefits” of the healthcare portion of the bill itself. Taxing tanning salons, turning the IRS into big brother to funnel more funds to this entitlement (if we’ve been missing so much tax revenue for years, we could have revamped the IRS system outside of this bill – what do IRS reciepts have to do with healthcare funding? Nothing!), cutting out what I can deduct in my flex spending account (no more OTC meds, lowering my FSA limit and more)? None of these had anything to do with the “program paying for itself” as it was billed. We essentially raised taxes and cut elsewhere to funnel funds into this program and it’s still going to implode from 2020 onward.
Healthcare Reform does not fund itself. It never will. It is a sham.
From a humanitarian standpoint, any benefits above and beyond what the uninsured get now is a positive. Financially, this bill is a disaster. It will burden our young people and future generations with debt they will never be able to repay. This has implications for everything from future interest rates and the standing of the US on the global stage to a declining standard of living and the eventual cuts to services that will be required inevitably (Canada can’t help itself, nor can the UK [Axe falls on NHS services] no matter how many movies Michael Moore makes about socialized medicine).
At a time when other western nations figured out socialized medicine is bankrupting them…The US decides it’s a great idea.
With regard to current businesses, it’s a huge net negative. Instead of working on helping the economy recover last year, Obama spent all his time and political capital on an issue which is vastly anti-business. As noted by massive Billion dollar writeoffs from the likes of AT&T and Caterpillar and many other large companies, just think about this mandate from the perspective of a small business owner. If you’re at 23 employees and a new requirement kicks in at 25, are you going to grow you’re business? No, you’re going to maintain constant employment in the 23-24 range and continue to add automation, outsource, contract, exit low margin businesses, or do whatever you have to do to balance continued profit growth while avoiding that bullet.
What a stupid system that punishes a small business for growing.
Summary: Improving access to health care is important. Destroying our country in the process and lying to the American people about the taxes and future insolvency of the program is wrong.
Tax Hikes
Sure, sure, those rich fatcat bankers can afford to pay more taxes so we can spread the wealth around. I know, we’ve heard it over and over again. The problem is many of those rich folks are small business owners with passthrough S corporations, so when their taxes go up and they want to maintain the same income, what are they going to do? Cut costs. Cut employees. Many things in business are gray areas, not black and white. Sure, some businesses will just do business as usual and pay higher taxes. But others will cut their headcount or put their money to use elsewhere in more tax advantaged vehicles other than their business. It’s these marginal changes that will crimp new job creation. Don’t forget that rich people buy stuff too. When they have less money to spend, that consumer part of GDP declines. That means jobs. I know, there are studies out there showing that the rich tend to invest and hoard their money on a higher percentage basis than the general population (that’s why some of them are wealthy to begin with), but again, it’s a directional issue. Certainly, there will be that fewer swimming pools, new cars and trips to Hawaii when the rich have less money to spend. While they may seem like excesses to you, that IS money that goes back into our economy though…
Summary: Taxes will have to go up inevitably. Taxing the rich only will decrease job creation and GDP. In the future, lower tax brackets will require tax increases to pay for health care and other entitlements anyway. Just be honest about it.
Small Biz Taking a Back Seat to Unions and Special Interests
Incredibly, while the overall unemployment picture has been in a continual state of decline, there’s one industry that’s really booming – big government! Government worker payrolls have surged (Govt Worker Payroll Surge – Washington Times). Sure, one could argue that this is a form of stimulus and it’s keeping people working…but government doesn’t PRODUCE anything. There is no net benefit to each increase in headcount. Sure, you need regulation and enforcement of laws. But society does not benefit when the only segment of the workforce that continues to grow and usurp public tax dollars is the bureaucratic base. We need to grow private industry jobs – you know, the ones that create things and drive tax revenues by way to sales of new innovative products like iPads.
In order to ensure that America continues to lose ground to our overseas competitors on both competitiveness and flexibility, Obama has continued to pull shenanigans to grow union ranks and provide payback for those November votes at the expense of the rest of the country. Why unions should have been allowed a pass on healthcare plan taxes while the same guy doing the same job down the street is beyond me. The claim is that unions have accepted lower wage increases in recent years to account for increasing healthcare costs is ludicrous. Union workers have bloated salaries and benefits (plus bloated pensions) compared to private sector equivalent jobs in EVERY segment of the economy! It’s called free market competition for labor. When you don’t have practical guaranteed lifetime employment and the ability to cripple a plant with a strike, you’re going to work for the going rate. When you join up with the local, you enjoy above market wages and benefits and carry the bravado that no matter how bad you screw up or loaf around, it’s really a pain to fire you. That’s just the way it goes.
To add insult to injury, the administration sought to enact Card Check legislation which would essentially remove the secret ballot from the unionization vote for business that were currently non-union. This is America right? Do I have to tell the guy at the election poll if I’m voting Democrat or Republican? No. Should a union organizer know if I, as a content employee in a non-union shop, voted for or against unionization? It’s ridiculous. For anyone that’s ever worked with a union, you know full-well the fear and intimidation tactics employed against anyone that isn’t “with the program”. Card Check would ensure that nobody voted against, because you’d be public enemy #1 once the vote when through. What this would do is essentially force a sea change in unionization throughout the country…which in turn, means more votes for Dems, higher costs to business, and higher costs for all goods and services throughout the entire economy. Now, that’s business-friendly?
Summary: Focusing all energy on boosting unions and ignoring small business leaders does nothing to help grow jobs. In fact, quite the contrary.
Bailouts Gallore – No Moral Hazard
Our government’s done a series of bailouts, with Bush kicking off the festivities, followed by Obama coming in and going medieval on the Bush spending trajectory. (10 Dumbest Uses of Stimulus Dollars)
We bailed out homeowners who had no business owning a home to begin with since they couldn’t afford it and lied about their income. We then bailed out the loan officers, banks and homebuilders who were culpable in the fraud as well (while prosecuting exactly ZERO people for fraud). After bailing them out with Billions in taxpayer funds, they stopped paying their mortgages anyway and now live in their homes for free for up to 2 years while banks try to navigate the regulation and legal obstacles to repossess their homes.
We bailed out GM. First, we continued to throw money down a rat hole when bankruptcy was inevitable. Obama claimed if GM declared bankruptcy, it would push supplies in the Midwest out of business causing a huge ripple effect. So we continued to bail them out. When it became painfully obvious that the gig was up, the did declare bankruptcy. And the Midwest didn’t crumble. The union sure got a sweet deal though – the government mediator saw to that. Following the bailout, GM made TV spots saying they paid back taxpayer funds in full…even though they didn’t.
We did cash for clunkers. Because I traded in my SUV for a more fuel efficient car years ago, I got no bailout. But plenty of people who continued to drive gas guzzling cars for years did when they were likely to buy a more fuel efficient car. These are people who eventually would have bought a new car anyway, just like I did. But they got thousands of dollars in taxpayer subsidies to do so.
We continue to extend unemployment benefits forever. There is no end in sight. Just when you thought 99 weeks of unemployment insurance sounded ridiculous, it was increased to 119 weeks. And it will be extended again. Sure, there are arguments that the long-term unemployed just end up on other government programs anyway when their benefits expire, there are also studies showing that applicants are much more willing to accept a job in the weeks leading up the expiration of benefits (wouldn’t you be?). Well, as long as we keep extending the benefits, people will be that much less inclined to take a position on the margin. What is on the margin? It means that perhaps it pays better than UI, but not enough to go to work. I know, there are millions of unemployed who are legitimately looking for work and would take anything that came their way. I’m not painting everyone with the same brush. But there are also millions of scammers (I know of a few personally, and surely you do too) who are laughing all the way to the bank because they either work for cash, they’re stay at home moms anyway, or they basically have no intention of returning to the workforce for other reasons – but they’re collecting Billions per month from taxpayers.
While extended UI in this environment was appropriate, there are no longer any rules. 99 weeks, 119 weeks, what’s the limit? When does it end? And who pays?
Summary: We bail out losers. Over and over. We reward incompetency and bad decision making and punish success and prudence.
Uncertainty is the Killer
This is the biggest and worst offender of them all from a business sentiment standpoint. Business just doesn’t know what the administration is going to do next. Whatever populist pet project comes along next will come under fire and business leaders are constantly wondering if their industry is next. What sort of new regulation, scrutiny and paperwork are they going to be bombarded with. It’s a vicious cycle in which smart business types know that unemployment is going to remain sluggishly high and/or rise for years to come thus crimping revenues and it’s going to become MORE burdensome to increase payroll, so what’s the optimal business solution? Either increase automation to replace humans (note business productivity has gone through the roof during the current Recession/Recovery) or do nothing – but not grow payroll.
What’s going to happen to Fannie and Freddie? Will a Value Added Tax be added to the already increasing tax base? What types of quantitative easing and other tools will the Fed employ next? They’re running out of options.
Summary: Nobody knows the rules. Business hates uncertainty. Because the administration is intent on continuously tinkering with the rules, growing their ranks and diverting public ire and blame to the private sector to distract from the real problem, businesses are simply standing firm until the dust settles. And it may not settle for a long time. That has serious implications for the economy.
I know I missed a few. And there will surely be some back and forth on facts and figures and fringe benefits of some of these programs. But it is undeniable that business is in the tank, and it’s not getting any better. Business is getting no help from the administration and we can’t tax our way to prosperity.
Am I Off Base Here?
