Being a continuous doomsayer on markets and the global state of affairs is appealing to many. It sounds cool. It makes you seem like you know how the world really works and nobody else knows what the hell they’re talking about. You’re calling out the media and that “Wall Street Machine” for their positive propaganda. It’s sure a heck of a lot more rewarding to people than saying, “I really don’t know. I’m not in a position to make predictions and you shouldn’t be listening to predictions”. Well, the perma-bears were all up in a tizzy back in August when the dreaded prophecy was borne of blood once again. It made all the headlines and was the talk of even the non-financial pundits, but alas, what happened? I’d posted on August 15 (here) why nobody should care about the Hindenburg Omen. Here’s how the market performed since then:
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An 8.45% return in 2 months on common equities, amplified if you hold high beta shares like me (see recent portfolio update). Most people are happy with an 8% return per year, let alone a 2 month period. If this is the worst the naysayers can throw at us, I say, “Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?”. I’m not saying I have all the answers or that I can predict market moves any better than the next guy. What I am saying though, is that anyone that claims they can predict major market moves is full of it and you should take their advice with a grain of salt. On any given day, CNBC can dig up any number of top hedge fund managers, Nobel laureates and top CEOs and they’ll get 9 different predictions out of them. Each one may have a very compelling thesis. In my youth, I’d actually go out and trade based on how influential their proposition was. And after I lost enough money I figured out they were mere mortals. The reality is, markets confound even the most experienced, intelligent and historically successful figures.
Set a strategy, stick with it, keep your costs low, don’t deviate, and go make some money!